Wednesday 7/28

Unpredictable

Can you guess what the weather is going to be like in 30 days from now?  Probably not correctly, but you can make a guess, right?  (Here, in Texas, I can say fry-an-egg-on-the-sidewalk hot, and I might even bet on it.)  Of course you can guess.  You can always guess.  Can you predict what word I’m going to say next?  Go ahead and try.

…

Porcupine!

Were you right?  Your odds are about one in 600,000.  (If you did guess right, I’d go buy a lottery ticket, if I were you.)  What’s my point?  We describe so many things, people, and events as unpredictable, but is that an accurate statement?  I don’t think so.

A prediction is basically a guess, right?  Well, you can guess pretty much anything.  You can guess how many accidents you’ll see on the way to work.  You can predict what song is going to come on the radio next.  You can predict anything.  The concept in question, however, is there anything that is truly unpredictable?  Again, I don’t think so.

Just because no one is guessing correctly when the world is going to end or who is going to be the next Justin Beiber doesn’t mean it can’t be guessed.  You can prophesize all day.  Who cares if you’re right or wrong?  A guess is a guess is a guess.  I say absolutely nothing is unpredictable.  We’re just not actively predicting everything.

By: S. Cole Garrett